Anticipating aging failure using feedback data and expert judgment

Anticipating aging failure using feedback data and expert judgment

This paper presents a methodology for anticipating failures in a component up to the end of its life cycle. Often, feedback data is not sufficient and must be complemented by the analysis of expert judgment. The methodology developed aims at anticipating the degradation mechanisms responsible for aging, and evaluating their relevance and related uncertainties. This is necessary information for ...

TU Delft expert judgment data base

We review the applications of structured expert judgment uncertainty quantification using the "classical model" developed at the Delft University of Technology over the last 17 years (Cooke, 1991). These involve 45 expert panels, performed under contract with problem owners who reviewed and approved the results. With a few exceptions, all these applications involved the use of seed variables; t...

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Using Data Envelopment Analysis

Expert Judgment in Risk Analysis

Experts are often used to provide uncertainty distributions in risk analyses. They play an importantrole when insufficient data exist for quantification, or when the available data or models are conflicting. Multiplesteps are required in constructing a successful expert judgment process. These steps include selecting andframing the issues, identifying the experts, deciding upon an o...

Expertise, Judgment, Underwriters and Expert Systems

Expertise m what is it? Expertise is the ability of one human within an organization to outperform a similarly educated and informed peer group in discrete, repetitive tasks involving decision-making and risk assessment. Expertise is best measured by the degree to which an individual’s performance provides proprietary advantage to his organization. Bright people with exceptional ways of accompl...